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June 29, 2023 6:00 AM EDT Tegmark is a professor doing AI research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology We know that an all-out U.S.-Russia nuclear war would be bad. But how bad,...
How do researchers gauge the probability and severity of nuclear war? Catastrophic risk expert Seth Baum explains. One day last week, I woke up in the morning and looked out the window to see...
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Scientists revealed on Tuesday that the "Doomsday Clock" has been moved up to 90 seconds before midnight -- the closest humanity has ever been to armageddon.
Even people with the same information may have wildly different guesses: Former U.S. President John Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis to be between one...
The next year, Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s president, said that Russia could use nuclear warheads “within seconds” of an attack onto Russian territory — raising fears that a border ...
Here, forecasters Peter Scoblic and David Mandel answer the question: What is the probability the war in Ukraine will turn nuclear? They explain why probabilities are useful for putting fear into ...
By contrast, Allison estimates the probability that the Ukraine crisis will devolve into nuclear war between Russia and the United States as “less than one in 100—and in my best estimate ...